Japan's population is forecast to dwindle to less than 90 million by 2055 and the percentage of elderly (people at least 65 years old) will rise to 40.5 percent, according to median forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
The proportion of those in the productive age bracket of 15 to 64 will fall to 51.1 percent of the total population, nearly equal to those in the nonproductive age brackets — namely, children up to 14 and the "elderly" (those 65 or older).
As recently as 2005, the elderly accounted for 20.2 percent of the total population while those of productive age, 66.1 percent. This means that one elderly person was supported by two of productive age. In 2055, however, everybody of productive age may have to support one elderly person.
Furthermore, recent statistics show that the proportion of those in the productive age bracket who are willing to work has fallen to slightly more than 60 percent — around 70 percent for men and slightly less than 50 percent for women. All these changes are bound to present a number of serious problems.
First of all, spending for medical services and nursing care will skyrocket as a percentage of household expenditure... It will reduce household disposable income because money paid for medical and nursing care services constitutes "necessary expenses" just like income tax and other burdens.
As a result, the average household will spend less on goods and services and more on items related to medical and nursing care services, presenting an utterly gloomy future for nearly all industry segments — except hospitals, homes for the elderly and pharmaceutical manufacturers.
The second problem is that many people are forced to stop working at the "retirement" age of 60 by most corporations, even when they are willing to keep working. It has been demonstrated that people in their 60s are often in the prime of their career, making it all the more desirable to raise the corporate retirement age.
Demographic statistics released by the welfare ministry show that, in 2007, average life expectancy for 75-year-olds was 11.3 years for men and 15.2 years for women. This means that for the average worker, all the money earned during 40 years of hard work will have to be spent for accommodations in a home for the elderly during the final 10-plus years of his or her life.
In the not-too-distant future, stem cell and other advanced medical technologies are likely to extend life expectancy at least five years, which will only increase the amount of upfront money needed to get into a home for the elderly.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100510ts.html
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