As police strengthen their efforts to crack down on fund-raising activities by organized crime groups, they are seeing a rising trend in groups trying to push overpriced products such as Viagra tablets on convenience store owners.
The Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) suspects that organized crime groups are now trying to tap into community-based businesses as they find it more difficult to collect money through the old-fashioned way -- "protection money" from restaurants and bars -- amid the lingering economic recession.
According to investigators, a 51-year-old gangster affiliated with the Inagawa-kai crime syndicate visited a total of 11 convenience stores, beauty salons and drug stores in Tokyo's Setagaya and Shibuya wards in February this year. The man reportedly showed a business card with the name of his yakuza clan printed on it in front of shop assistants, and then showed a flyer which read: "We accept telephone orders for Viagra, available for 12,000 yen for five tablets; 20,000 yen for 10 tablets and 38,000 yen for 20 tablets."
When one of the shop clerks rejected his offer, the man insisted, saying "Customers will appreciate it if you give them the tablets secretly, and more people will come to visit your shop through word-of-mouth. We have underground porn videos too." But no one at the 11 stores bought anything from the man, police said.
After receiving a series of similar complaints, the MPD's Organized Crime Control Section in April ordered the man to halt his soliciting under authority of the Act on Prevention of Unjust Acts by Organized Crime Group Members (Anti-Organized Crime Act).
The Viagra he offered to the shops was about 40 percent more expensive than products out on the market, and police suspect that the price difference was meant to function as protection money.
According to the organized crime control section, in addition to established fund-raising practices such as forcing restaurants and bars in their territory to buy commodities such as New Year's decorations and air fresheners and demanding protection money, gangs have recently begun inviting shop clerks to join events such as expensive dinner cruises on private houseboats. Crime organizations seem to be adopting a strategy of collecting smaller amounts of money, but from a broader range of businesses.
In 2009, the MPD issued a record 532 orders to gang members who demanded protection money from food service operators and other businesses in Tokyo to halt such activities -- an increase of 62 cases from 2008. It was the highest number among all prefectures. Without the orders, an estimated 340 million yen could have filtered through to crime groups.
A 2008 revision to the Anti-Organized Crime Act stipulates that if a gang member tries to extort money under the name of a crime syndicate, its leader will also be held responsible for the act and ordered to pay damages. Several crime groups have reportedly invited lawyers and other experts to hold study sessions about the revised law.
One organized crime group created a list of shops they have been ordered by police not to visit again and instructed its members to stay away from the shops on the list. Another organization has reportedly drawn up guidelines for its members, telling them to "avoid wearing yakuza-like clothing" and that "mistakes by members will be settled financially rather than by cutting off fingers."
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/news/20100529p2a00m0na010000c.html
Monday, May 31, 2010
April - Housing starts up for 1st time in 17 months
Japan's housing starts in April edged up 0.6 percent from a year earlier to 66,568 units for the first increase in 17 months, the government said Monday.
The rise is attributable to increased starts on large-scale condominiums for sale in Tokyo as well as a rebound from the year before's 32.4 percent plunge amid the global recession, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
The ministry said the housing market has shown signs of recovery as a whole but it is continuing to seesaw.
Starts on condos for sale by property developers jumped 35.8 percent to 9,668 units for the first rise in 16 months, while those on single- family houses for sale rose 19.0 percent to 8,363 units for the fourth straight month of rise.
By region, housing starts rose 7.2 percent in the Tokyo metropolitan area, 1.0 percent in the Chubu region centering on Nagoya and 4.6 percent in the Kinki region including Osaka.
However, the rest of Japan saw a decline of 8.0 percent.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9G1ME8G1&show_article=1
The rise is attributable to increased starts on large-scale condominiums for sale in Tokyo as well as a rebound from the year before's 32.4 percent plunge amid the global recession, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
The ministry said the housing market has shown signs of recovery as a whole but it is continuing to seesaw.
Starts on condos for sale by property developers jumped 35.8 percent to 9,668 units for the first rise in 16 months, while those on single- family houses for sale rose 19.0 percent to 8,363 units for the fourth straight month of rise.
By region, housing starts rose 7.2 percent in the Tokyo metropolitan area, 1.0 percent in the Chubu region centering on Nagoya and 4.6 percent in the Kinki region including Osaka.
However, the rest of Japan saw a decline of 8.0 percent.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9G1ME8G1&show_article=1
April - Industrial output up 1.3%
Japan's industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent in April from the previous month for the second straight month of growth, partly due to brisk exports of equipment used for flat-panel televisions, the government said Monday.
The headline reading was worse than the average market forecast of a 2.5 percent rise in a Kyodo News survey.
The index of output at factories and mines stood at 96.0 against the base of 100 for 2005, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report.
The index of industrial shipments gained 1.6 percent to 98.2 and that of industrial inventories was up 0.3 percent to 94.3.
On production, the ministry left its basic assessment unchanged, saying "Industrial production continues to show an upward movement."
By sector, output by general machinery makers climbed 12.0 percent, while transport equipment makers, including automakers, grew 0.3 percent.
Looking ahead, the ministry is projecting industrial production will rise 0.4 percent in May and grow 0.3 percent in June.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9G1GQ8G0&show_article=1
The headline reading was worse than the average market forecast of a 2.5 percent rise in a Kyodo News survey.
The index of output at factories and mines stood at 96.0 against the base of 100 for 2005, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report.
The index of industrial shipments gained 1.6 percent to 98.2 and that of industrial inventories was up 0.3 percent to 94.3.
On production, the ministry left its basic assessment unchanged, saying "Industrial production continues to show an upward movement."
By sector, output by general machinery makers climbed 12.0 percent, while transport equipment makers, including automakers, grew 0.3 percent.
Looking ahead, the ministry is projecting industrial production will rise 0.4 percent in May and grow 0.3 percent in June.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9G1GQ8G0&show_article=1
Oct 08 - June 2010 - 277,000 nonregular workers to lose jobs - Aichi worst hit
A total of 277,674 nonregular workers at 5,252 business offices lost or are expected to lose their jobs in the period from October 2008 to June this year, a labor ministry survey showed Friday.
The figure, including workers whose labor contracts with manpower agencies were not renewed after expiration, grew by 2,660 from the previous survey in April, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
"Employment conditions for nonregular workers have stabilized" compared with past periods when companies terminated contracts for dispatch workers, a ministry official said, however.
By prefecture, Aichi, the home of Japan's auto industry where Toyota Motor Corp. and affiliated component suppliers are based, remained top of the list with 45,355 nonregular workers who lost or are expected to lose their jobs, followed by Tokyo with 16,581 and Shizuoka with 11,342.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FVHM2G0&show_article=1
The figure, including workers whose labor contracts with manpower agencies were not renewed after expiration, grew by 2,660 from the previous survey in April, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
"Employment conditions for nonregular workers have stabilized" compared with past periods when companies terminated contracts for dispatch workers, a ministry official said, however.
By prefecture, Aichi, the home of Japan's auto industry where Toyota Motor Corp. and affiliated component suppliers are based, remained top of the list with 45,355 nonregular workers who lost or are expected to lose their jobs, followed by Tokyo with 16,581 and Shizuoka with 11,342.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FVHM2G0&show_article=1
April - Japan's exports jump 40 percent
Japan's exports jumped 40 percent in April, rising for a fifth straight month, fueled by brisk overseas demand for cars and high-tech goods in a fresh sign that the global economy is recovering.
Led by shipments of cars and semiconductors, exports rose to 5.9 trillion yen ($65 billion), the Ministry of Finance said Thursday. Automobile exports more than doubled from a year earlier, while semiconductor shipments rose 35.5 percent.
Robust global demand, particularly in Asia, is feeding a turnaround in Japan's economy — the world's second-largest — offsetting weak demand and falling prices at home. Japan's exports to Asia alone account for 56 percent of total shipments.
A recovery in global auto sales, which plummeted during the global economic crisis in the wake of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, is vital to Japan's economic recovery.
Recent economic signals from Japan have been fairly upbeat. Gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent in the first quarter, the fourth straight quarter of expansion on the back of soaring exports to China.
Thursday's trade figures showed that U.S.-bound exports rose 34.5 percent, while exports to Asia surged 45.3 percent in April. Exports to China alone jumped 41.4 percent, while shipments to the European Union grew 19.8 percent.
Europe-bound exports rose for a fifth consecutive month, but Hideki Matsumura, senior economist at the Japan Research Institute, warned a slump in demand from the region is around the corner because of the debt crisis in European countries that use the euro.
"The crisis could dent demand for Japanese products. But its impact will be limited because Japanese exports to Europe are much smaller than those to the United States and Asia," Matsumura said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy_3
Led by shipments of cars and semiconductors, exports rose to 5.9 trillion yen ($65 billion), the Ministry of Finance said Thursday. Automobile exports more than doubled from a year earlier, while semiconductor shipments rose 35.5 percent.
Robust global demand, particularly in Asia, is feeding a turnaround in Japan's economy — the world's second-largest — offsetting weak demand and falling prices at home. Japan's exports to Asia alone account for 56 percent of total shipments.
A recovery in global auto sales, which plummeted during the global economic crisis in the wake of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, is vital to Japan's economic recovery.
Recent economic signals from Japan have been fairly upbeat. Gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent in the first quarter, the fourth straight quarter of expansion on the back of soaring exports to China.
Thursday's trade figures showed that U.S.-bound exports rose 34.5 percent, while exports to Asia surged 45.3 percent in April. Exports to China alone jumped 41.4 percent, while shipments to the European Union grew 19.8 percent.
Europe-bound exports rose for a fifth consecutive month, but Hideki Matsumura, senior economist at the Japan Research Institute, warned a slump in demand from the region is around the corner because of the debt crisis in European countries that use the euro.
"The crisis could dent demand for Japanese products. But its impact will be limited because Japanese exports to Europe are much smaller than those to the United States and Asia," Matsumura said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy_3
2009 - Wages fell a record 3.3%
Monthly wages took their largest drop ever — 3.3 percent — in fiscal 2009 ended in March as the global financial crisis and recession took their toll, the labor ministry said Monday.
Wages came to ¥315,311 on average, down for a third consecutive year and the sharpest year-on-year drop since fiscal 1991, when the survey's current statistical methods were adopted.
The drop emerged in the form of declining semiannual bonuses and overtime pay as companies struggled to cope with the weak economy, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
Bonuses and other nonbasic pay tumbled 10.8 percent to ¥53,046 per month, while nonscheduled remuneration, including overtime, slumped 7.9 percent to ¥16,987. Basic salaries fell 1.1 percent to ¥245,278.
Overtime hours came to an average of 9.4 hours per month in the reporting year, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100518a3.html
Wages came to ¥315,311 on average, down for a third consecutive year and the sharpest year-on-year drop since fiscal 1991, when the survey's current statistical methods were adopted.
The drop emerged in the form of declining semiannual bonuses and overtime pay as companies struggled to cope with the weak economy, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
Bonuses and other nonbasic pay tumbled 10.8 percent to ¥53,046 per month, while nonscheduled remuneration, including overtime, slumped 7.9 percent to ¥16,987. Basic salaries fell 1.1 percent to ¥245,278.
Overtime hours came to an average of 9.4 hours per month in the reporting year, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100518a3.html
2012 D-Day for Japanese National Debt Crisis?
Japan may lose its ability to domestically finance its debt “in a few years” because of a surge of retirees in 2012, according to an analyst at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
“The key year for public finances will be 2012, as the baby boomers retire and begin collecting their pensions en masse,” Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, said yesterday in an interview in Tokyo. “That may be when Japan’s sovereign risk becomes evident.”
Japan, the largest borrower among developed nations, has yet to face a Greece-like fiscal crisis because it has been able to finance most of its spending at home, Nagahama said. The first of Japan’s baby boomers will turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments.
About 8 million, or 6 percent of the population, were born between 1947 and 1949, regarded as the baby boomer generation in Japan, government data show. Almost 23 percent of the nation’s 126 million people will be older than 65 this year, the highest proportion in the world, according to Bloomberg data.
More retirees will lead to a “rapid” surge in the natural growth of the government’s social security burden, which tracks the yearly increase of costs as a result of the aging population, Nagahama said. Costs will rise 2.5 trillion yen annually by 2013, he forecasts, more than double the 1.09 trillion yen growth the government is projecting for this fiscal year.
Retirees will also begin to draw on their savings, according to Nagahama. “If the value of household assets drops, or if it doesn’t fall but doesn’t rise either even as public debt continues to grow, the Japanese won’t be able to finance” government spending on their own, he said.
More than 90 percent of Japan’s government bonds are held by domestic investors. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s Cabinet is scheduled to unveil in June a plan to reduce a debt burden that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates is at twice the size of the economy.
Public debt totaled a record 882.9 trillion yen ($9.5 trillion) as of March 31, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said this week. Households’ financial assets stood at 1,456 trillion yen as of Dec. 31, Bank of Japan figures show.
Japan may need to depend more on foreign buyers of its bonds in the long term, a Finance Ministry official said today.
“Given Japan’s demographics, the current account surplus may decrease and some even say it will go into deficit, although it’s hard to predict when that would happen,” Masaaki Kaizuka, director of debt management at the ministry, said at a conference in Tokyo. “We may see the need to increase reliance from abroad whether we want to or not.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aFLZv1XQPInU&pid=20601087
“The key year for public finances will be 2012, as the baby boomers retire and begin collecting their pensions en masse,” Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, said yesterday in an interview in Tokyo. “That may be when Japan’s sovereign risk becomes evident.”
Japan, the largest borrower among developed nations, has yet to face a Greece-like fiscal crisis because it has been able to finance most of its spending at home, Nagahama said. The first of Japan’s baby boomers will turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments.
About 8 million, or 6 percent of the population, were born between 1947 and 1949, regarded as the baby boomer generation in Japan, government data show. Almost 23 percent of the nation’s 126 million people will be older than 65 this year, the highest proportion in the world, according to Bloomberg data.
More retirees will lead to a “rapid” surge in the natural growth of the government’s social security burden, which tracks the yearly increase of costs as a result of the aging population, Nagahama said. Costs will rise 2.5 trillion yen annually by 2013, he forecasts, more than double the 1.09 trillion yen growth the government is projecting for this fiscal year.
Retirees will also begin to draw on their savings, according to Nagahama. “If the value of household assets drops, or if it doesn’t fall but doesn’t rise either even as public debt continues to grow, the Japanese won’t be able to finance” government spending on their own, he said.
More than 90 percent of Japan’s government bonds are held by domestic investors. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s Cabinet is scheduled to unveil in June a plan to reduce a debt burden that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates is at twice the size of the economy.
Public debt totaled a record 882.9 trillion yen ($9.5 trillion) as of March 31, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said this week. Households’ financial assets stood at 1,456 trillion yen as of Dec. 31, Bank of Japan figures show.
Japan may need to depend more on foreign buyers of its bonds in the long term, a Finance Ministry official said today.
“Given Japan’s demographics, the current account surplus may decrease and some even say it will go into deficit, although it’s hard to predict when that would happen,” Masaaki Kaizuka, director of debt management at the ministry, said at a conference in Tokyo. “We may see the need to increase reliance from abroad whether we want to or not.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aFLZv1XQPInU&pid=20601087
Japanese Demographics
Japan's population is forecast to dwindle to less than 90 million by 2055 and the percentage of elderly (people at least 65 years old) will rise to 40.5 percent, according to median forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
The proportion of those in the productive age bracket of 15 to 64 will fall to 51.1 percent of the total population, nearly equal to those in the nonproductive age brackets — namely, children up to 14 and the "elderly" (those 65 or older).
As recently as 2005, the elderly accounted for 20.2 percent of the total population while those of productive age, 66.1 percent. This means that one elderly person was supported by two of productive age. In 2055, however, everybody of productive age may have to support one elderly person.
Furthermore, recent statistics show that the proportion of those in the productive age bracket who are willing to work has fallen to slightly more than 60 percent — around 70 percent for men and slightly less than 50 percent for women. All these changes are bound to present a number of serious problems.
First of all, spending for medical services and nursing care will skyrocket as a percentage of household expenditure... It will reduce household disposable income because money paid for medical and nursing care services constitutes "necessary expenses" just like income tax and other burdens.
As a result, the average household will spend less on goods and services and more on items related to medical and nursing care services, presenting an utterly gloomy future for nearly all industry segments — except hospitals, homes for the elderly and pharmaceutical manufacturers.
The second problem is that many people are forced to stop working at the "retirement" age of 60 by most corporations, even when they are willing to keep working. It has been demonstrated that people in their 60s are often in the prime of their career, making it all the more desirable to raise the corporate retirement age.
Demographic statistics released by the welfare ministry show that, in 2007, average life expectancy for 75-year-olds was 11.3 years for men and 15.2 years for women. This means that for the average worker, all the money earned during 40 years of hard work will have to be spent for accommodations in a home for the elderly during the final 10-plus years of his or her life.
In the not-too-distant future, stem cell and other advanced medical technologies are likely to extend life expectancy at least five years, which will only increase the amount of upfront money needed to get into a home for the elderly.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100510ts.html
The proportion of those in the productive age bracket of 15 to 64 will fall to 51.1 percent of the total population, nearly equal to those in the nonproductive age brackets — namely, children up to 14 and the "elderly" (those 65 or older).
As recently as 2005, the elderly accounted for 20.2 percent of the total population while those of productive age, 66.1 percent. This means that one elderly person was supported by two of productive age. In 2055, however, everybody of productive age may have to support one elderly person.
Furthermore, recent statistics show that the proportion of those in the productive age bracket who are willing to work has fallen to slightly more than 60 percent — around 70 percent for men and slightly less than 50 percent for women. All these changes are bound to present a number of serious problems.
First of all, spending for medical services and nursing care will skyrocket as a percentage of household expenditure... It will reduce household disposable income because money paid for medical and nursing care services constitutes "necessary expenses" just like income tax and other burdens.
As a result, the average household will spend less on goods and services and more on items related to medical and nursing care services, presenting an utterly gloomy future for nearly all industry segments — except hospitals, homes for the elderly and pharmaceutical manufacturers.
The second problem is that many people are forced to stop working at the "retirement" age of 60 by most corporations, even when they are willing to keep working. It has been demonstrated that people in their 60s are often in the prime of their career, making it all the more desirable to raise the corporate retirement age.
Demographic statistics released by the welfare ministry show that, in 2007, average life expectancy for 75-year-olds was 11.3 years for men and 15.2 years for women. This means that for the average worker, all the money earned during 40 years of hard work will have to be spent for accommodations in a home for the elderly during the final 10-plus years of his or her life.
In the not-too-distant future, stem cell and other advanced medical technologies are likely to extend life expectancy at least five years, which will only increase the amount of upfront money needed to get into a home for the elderly.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100510ts.html
CMBS restructurings add $12bn to US distressed real estate pile
PERE reports that
In Japan, while the numbers are not as huge; there are substantial amounts of CMBS coming to maturity and there is still a major question mark in the market as to how this will be resolved in the next 2-3 years
http://www.perenews.com/article.aspx?article=53319
the rising number of CMBS restructurings helped push up the amount of distressed real estate in the US by almost 41 percent in April, taking the total value of troubled property in the country to more than $184.6 billion.
According to data provider Real Capital Analytics, a recently revised approach to CMBS loan modifications has contributed to $12.8 billion worth of new real estate distress being reported last month. In September, the US Internal Revenue Service said CMBS special servicers could pre-empt defaults by allowing loan modifications “prior to an imminent default”, rather than only afterwards. Approximately 60 percent of the new troubled real estate recorded by RCA is tied to CMBS-backed assets, up from just 5 percent in March.
RCA classes distressed real estate as having fallen into default, foreclosure or bankruptcy. Including real estate where troubled loans have been restructured and resolved, the amount of distress climbs to $239 billion.
The climb in the level of real estate distress in April came primarily from the office and hotel sectors
In Japan, while the numbers are not as huge; there are substantial amounts of CMBS coming to maturity and there is still a major question mark in the market as to how this will be resolved in the next 2-3 years
http://www.perenews.com/article.aspx?article=53319
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Japan's real GDP grows 4.9% in Q1
Japan's economy grew an annualized real 4.9 percent in the January- March quarter for the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion, the government said Thursday.
The expansion, as measured by gross domestic product, corresponds to a 1.2 percent growth from the October-December quarter, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary report.
The figures compare with the average market forecasts of an annualized 5.6 percent increase and 1.4 percent quarterly growth in a Kyodo News survey.
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced domestically. Real GDP data are adjusted for price and seasonal variations.
Japan's GDP in fiscal 2009 that ended March 31 shrank 1.9 percent from the previous year.
In the latest quarter, consumer spending -- which makes up about 60 percent of Japanese GDP -- increased a real 0.3 percent from the October-December period.
Corporate capital spending rose 1.0 percent.
Public investment decreased 1.7 percent.
On an unadjusted nominal basis, GDP rose an annualized 4.9 percent in the reporting period, which corresponds to a 1.2 percent expansion from the previous quarter.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FQ7V0O0&show_article=1
The expansion, as measured by gross domestic product, corresponds to a 1.2 percent growth from the October-December quarter, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary report.
The figures compare with the average market forecasts of an annualized 5.6 percent increase and 1.4 percent quarterly growth in a Kyodo News survey.
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced domestically. Real GDP data are adjusted for price and seasonal variations.
Japan's GDP in fiscal 2009 that ended March 31 shrank 1.9 percent from the previous year.
In the latest quarter, consumer spending -- which makes up about 60 percent of Japanese GDP -- increased a real 0.3 percent from the October-December period.
Corporate capital spending rose 1.0 percent.
Public investment decreased 1.7 percent.
On an unadjusted nominal basis, GDP rose an annualized 4.9 percent in the reporting period, which corresponds to a 1.2 percent expansion from the previous quarter.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FQ7V0O0&show_article=1
Debtors Using New Debt Moratorium Law
Leading Japanese banks have received a total of some 72,000 applications for the easing of loan repayment terms from small and midsize companies and homeowners under the so-called debt moratorium law that took effect in December last year, the banks said Monday.
The applications involved 3.26 trillion yen and 1,361 of them were rejected, the banks said.
The total number of applications represents an increase of around 17,000 from the end of February, according to the four banks which also include Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. and Resona Bank.
The law allows moratoriums on debt owed by smaller businesses and homeowners to support those hit by the global financial crisis. It is designed to encourage banks and other financial institutions to relax repayment terms, such as by extending repayment deadlines, for financially strapped smaller companies and individuals with home loans who apply to do so.
Under the new legislation which is credited with a recent decrease in corporate bankruptcies, financial institutions can judge whether they should change the terms of loans. But they are obliged to report their lending conditions to the Financial Services Agency so that the nation's financial watchdog can check for unfair terms.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FOHBJ80&show_article=1
The applications involved 3.26 trillion yen and 1,361 of them were rejected, the banks said.
The total number of applications represents an increase of around 17,000 from the end of February, according to the four banks which also include Mizuho Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. and Resona Bank.
The law allows moratoriums on debt owed by smaller businesses and homeowners to support those hit by the global financial crisis. It is designed to encourage banks and other financial institutions to relax repayment terms, such as by extending repayment deadlines, for financially strapped smaller companies and individuals with home loans who apply to do so.
Under the new legislation which is credited with a recent decrease in corporate bankruptcies, financial institutions can judge whether they should change the terms of loans. But they are obliged to report their lending conditions to the Financial Services Agency so that the nation's financial watchdog can check for unfair terms.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FOHBJ80&show_article=1
Poiice to Share Yakuza Data with Financial Sector
Japanese police will share information on yakuza crime syndicates with the country's securities industry to help drive the mobsters out of the financial sector, police said Wednesday.
The National Police Agency will open its database of tens of thousands of names believed to be linked with organised crime to the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA), police and the industry body said.
The new database will enable the industry body's 302 companies and 222 organisations, including banks and insurance firms, to check clients' backgrounds quickly.
Both sides are now working out how to set up the new system, the first such cooperation between national police and an industry body, and the Japanese Bankers Association is considering a similar database.
Members will be obliged to question clients on whether they belong to a crime syndicate and refuse to deal with known gangsters, police said.
Japanese police have a database of about 38,000 yakuza-affiliated individuals, while there are believed to be more than 80,000 gangsters, including low-ranking members, in Japan.
http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Business/Story/A1Story20100526-218629.html
The National Police Agency will open its database of tens of thousands of names believed to be linked with organised crime to the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA), police and the industry body said.
The new database will enable the industry body's 302 companies and 222 organisations, including banks and insurance firms, to check clients' backgrounds quickly.
Both sides are now working out how to set up the new system, the first such cooperation between national police and an industry body, and the Japanese Bankers Association is considering a similar database.
Members will be obliged to question clients on whether they belong to a crime syndicate and refuse to deal with known gangsters, police said.
Japanese police have a database of about 38,000 yakuza-affiliated individuals, while there are believed to be more than 80,000 gangsters, including low-ranking members, in Japan.
http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Business/Story/A1Story20100526-218629.html
Japan Leisure Hotels Law to Change
Articles in today's Nikkei and other major Japanese newspapers report on the announcement by the National Police Agency of implementation of changes to the Japanese "fuieho" (Entertainment Law) which will come into effect on 1 January 2011.
The article says this is first change in 26 years for the industry. The Police say that they currently have 3,590 hotels registered as "love hotels" under the fueiho ho; however, there are more than 30,000 other hotels which act in a similar way.
The NPA are trying to bring this industry under their supervision by requiring hotels which are defined as "love hotels" to require licensing from the Police and the Police say that they expect that the number of hotels subject to their jurisdiction will substantially increase.
Under the new laws, hotels will be defined as "love hotels" if they
1.advertise day time pricing or
2.allow customers direct access to rooms or
3. use the "in room payment machines" which have long been a "grey area" in this industry.
This is quite a significant development for this large Japanese industry - which some say is larger than Toyota - because licensing by the Police will reduce valuations of hotels and also liquidity in this market segment.
Due to the negative impacts on valuation and liquidity for hotels under Police licensing, we can expect cashed up hotel owners to renovate their properties so that they do not fall within the above definition of "love hotels"; but owners without the necessary funds will be in a difficult situation and will be squeezed.
Shinsei Bank and listed Japanese property fund, Kenedix both have direct holdings in leisure hotels and they may be required to dispose of these assets by TSX rules if the new laws impact their hotels.
They will be selling into a buyers market.
Previous post on Leisure Hotels - http://japanrealestatecommentary.blogspot.com/2010/01/japanese-retail-investors-look-to.html
http://www.nikkei.com/news/latest/article/g=96958A9C93819695E0E4E2E7968DE0E5E2E7E0E2E3E29180E2E2E2E2
http://www.jiji.com/jc/zc?key=%C9%F7%B1%C4%CB%A1&k=201005/2010052700249
http://mainichi.jp/select/wadai/news/20100527k0000e040019000c.html
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/affairs/crime/100527/crm1005271040012-n1.htm
The article says this is first change in 26 years for the industry. The Police say that they currently have 3,590 hotels registered as "love hotels" under the fueiho ho; however, there are more than 30,000 other hotels which act in a similar way.
The NPA are trying to bring this industry under their supervision by requiring hotels which are defined as "love hotels" to require licensing from the Police and the Police say that they expect that the number of hotels subject to their jurisdiction will substantially increase.
Under the new laws, hotels will be defined as "love hotels" if they
1.advertise day time pricing or
2.allow customers direct access to rooms or
3. use the "in room payment machines" which have long been a "grey area" in this industry.
This is quite a significant development for this large Japanese industry - which some say is larger than Toyota - because licensing by the Police will reduce valuations of hotels and also liquidity in this market segment.
Due to the negative impacts on valuation and liquidity for hotels under Police licensing, we can expect cashed up hotel owners to renovate their properties so that they do not fall within the above definition of "love hotels"; but owners without the necessary funds will be in a difficult situation and will be squeezed.
Shinsei Bank and listed Japanese property fund, Kenedix both have direct holdings in leisure hotels and they may be required to dispose of these assets by TSX rules if the new laws impact their hotels.
They will be selling into a buyers market.
Previous post on Leisure Hotels - http://japanrealestatecommentary.blogspot.com/2010/01/japanese-retail-investors-look-to.html
http://www.nikkei.com/news/latest/article/g=96958A9C93819695E0E4E2E7968DE0E5E2E7E0E2E3E29180E2E2E2E2
http://www.jiji.com/jc/zc?key=%C9%F7%B1%C4%CB%A1&k=201005/2010052700249
http://mainichi.jp/select/wadai/news/20100527k0000e040019000c.html
http://sankei.jp.msn.com/affairs/crime/100527/crm1005271040012-n1.htm
Monday, May 3, 2010
Household Asset Management and Spending Patterns
Share prices are picking up worldwide amid a growing sense that the global economy has finally hit bottom. However, we see no big change in the conservative ways Japanese households are managing their assets, which are mainly savings accounts.
The recent jumps in share prices in Japan are largely attributable to nonresident investors. Why? At a time when the public is scrutinizing the benefits of the Democratic Party of Japan's child-care allowances, there are several factors that explain why Japanese households aren't changing the way they manage their money.
The first is that the aftershocks from the collapse of the late 1980s bubble economy and the 2008 Lehman Brothers shock are still reverberating, reinforcing the traditionally conservative behavior of Japanese households. Although many households have invested some of their long-term holdings in stocks, they still have bitter memories of the two stock market crashes, and day trading — the online phenomena that empowered individual investors — hasn't been able to fully recover since the Livedoor shock.
The second factor is that fear of unemployment continues to haunt the economy. Joblessness among the younger generation remains particularly severe: A joint survey by the health and education ministries said that only 80 percent of university graduates had secured employment promises as of March 1. No official data had been released on the situation as of April 1, but estimates put the figure at under 90 percent this year, meaning one in 10 graduates lacked job prospects upon leaving school.
The employed have their own problems. Wages after tax and social security deductions are still shrinking and pay hikes are not on the horizon, if the outcome of this year's labor-management talks are any indication. It's no wonder households remain risk-averse when managing their money.
The Greek debt problem meanwhile adds a third element. Greece,while creating a drag on the EU economy as a whole, is highlighting the risk of Japan's huge public-sector debt. It is now obvious that the reductions in wasteful government spending promised by the DPJ won't be enough to cover the shortfall in tax revenue, and some overseas ratings agencies have been hinting that they might downgrade Japanese government bond ratings.
A fourth element is that the public has become cautious about investing in foreign currencies. They are being reminded that gains from betting on the interest rate differentials between Japan and other countries can be instantly wiped out by fluctuations in exchange rates. According to recent data, the value of foreign currency-denominated investment trusts has declined to roughly 70 percent of its peak of ¥67.1 trillion achieved in October 2007.
Following recent talks between China and the United States, speculation is growing that China's currency, the yuan, may soon appreciate. Speculation that the yen might go along for the ride have pushed investors to be even more cautious. On the other hand, expectations for a higher yen appear to be one of the factors driving nonresident investors to buy Japanese shares.
A fifth factor is being provided by Japan's old nemesis, deflation, and the government's own admissions that prices are likely to keep falling. This means that under current conditions, throwing your money into a bank remains one of the best "high return, low risk" ways to manage your funds. This is because that, even though interest rates are still near zero, falling prices will increase your purchasing power. In other words, there is no need to engage in financial transactions that will increase your risk.
People are of course aware of the risk that banks might collapse. Coupled with the government's review of Japan Post's banking operations, financial institutions — particularly small local banks — face tough times ahead. But people also know they have the final say over which banks to use, and there is a growing sense that using guaranteed bank deposits is safer than investing in government bonds that are increasingly at risk of being downgraded.
As has been pointed out by the the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Japan's fiscal deficits are not cyclical but structural in nature. We need to closely monitor how the DPJ intends to restrain the nation's swelling budget deficits.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100426jp.html
The recent jumps in share prices in Japan are largely attributable to nonresident investors. Why? At a time when the public is scrutinizing the benefits of the Democratic Party of Japan's child-care allowances, there are several factors that explain why Japanese households aren't changing the way they manage their money.
The first is that the aftershocks from the collapse of the late 1980s bubble economy and the 2008 Lehman Brothers shock are still reverberating, reinforcing the traditionally conservative behavior of Japanese households. Although many households have invested some of their long-term holdings in stocks, they still have bitter memories of the two stock market crashes, and day trading — the online phenomena that empowered individual investors — hasn't been able to fully recover since the Livedoor shock.
The second factor is that fear of unemployment continues to haunt the economy. Joblessness among the younger generation remains particularly severe: A joint survey by the health and education ministries said that only 80 percent of university graduates had secured employment promises as of March 1. No official data had been released on the situation as of April 1, but estimates put the figure at under 90 percent this year, meaning one in 10 graduates lacked job prospects upon leaving school.
The employed have their own problems. Wages after tax and social security deductions are still shrinking and pay hikes are not on the horizon, if the outcome of this year's labor-management talks are any indication. It's no wonder households remain risk-averse when managing their money.
The Greek debt problem meanwhile adds a third element. Greece,while creating a drag on the EU economy as a whole, is highlighting the risk of Japan's huge public-sector debt. It is now obvious that the reductions in wasteful government spending promised by the DPJ won't be enough to cover the shortfall in tax revenue, and some overseas ratings agencies have been hinting that they might downgrade Japanese government bond ratings.
A fourth element is that the public has become cautious about investing in foreign currencies. They are being reminded that gains from betting on the interest rate differentials between Japan and other countries can be instantly wiped out by fluctuations in exchange rates. According to recent data, the value of foreign currency-denominated investment trusts has declined to roughly 70 percent of its peak of ¥67.1 trillion achieved in October 2007.
Following recent talks between China and the United States, speculation is growing that China's currency, the yuan, may soon appreciate. Speculation that the yen might go along for the ride have pushed investors to be even more cautious. On the other hand, expectations for a higher yen appear to be one of the factors driving nonresident investors to buy Japanese shares.
A fifth factor is being provided by Japan's old nemesis, deflation, and the government's own admissions that prices are likely to keep falling. This means that under current conditions, throwing your money into a bank remains one of the best "high return, low risk" ways to manage your funds. This is because that, even though interest rates are still near zero, falling prices will increase your purchasing power. In other words, there is no need to engage in financial transactions that will increase your risk.
People are of course aware of the risk that banks might collapse. Coupled with the government's review of Japan Post's banking operations, financial institutions — particularly small local banks — face tough times ahead. But people also know they have the final say over which banks to use, and there is a growing sense that using guaranteed bank deposits is safer than investing in government bonds that are increasingly at risk of being downgraded.
As has been pointed out by the the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Japan's fiscal deficits are not cyclical but structural in nature. We need to closely monitor how the DPJ intends to restrain the nation's swelling budget deficits.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100426jp.html
March - General Data & BoJ's GDP Forecast Improves
In its semiannual outlook, the Bank of Japan predicted that the world's second biggest economy would see faster growth this fiscal year, which began April 1, and a possible end to deflation within two years. Gross domestic product will probably expand 1.8 percent this year, the central bank said, better than its previous forecast of 1.3 percent.
The report credited robust growth in overseas markets, particularly in Asia, for fueling Japanese exports and production. Stock prices and corporate profits are up. That should boost capital expenditures and eventually lead to more jobs, higher wages and stronger domestic demand.
"Given these developments, the momentum for a self-sustaining recovery in private consumption is likely to build gradually," the BOJ said.
Government data Friday showed that the country's recovery, though advancing, remains uneven. Unemployment worsened, and prices continued to fall in March. At the same time, household spending rose and factory output expanded.
Japan's seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 5 percent in the first increase in five months. The figure is up from 4.9 percent in February. The number of jobless totaled 3.5 million during the month, up 4.5 percent from a year earlier. Those with jobs fell 0.6 percent to 62.1 million.
Goldman Sachs economist Chiwoong Lee describes the labor market as having "no spark."
"Viewed over several months, the path is flat," he said in a note to clients. "Deterioration has eased but not given way to improvement."
That has dragged prices lower as stores scramble to attract increasingly finicky consumers.
Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes prices of fresh food, declined 1.2 percent in March from a year earlier. The result marked the 13th straight month of decline. Prices fell for a swath of goods from fuel to furniture.
Core CPI for the Tokyo area, seen as a barometer of future price trends nationwide, retreated 1.9 percent in April. In its report, the central bank said CPI may turn positive next fiscal year starting April 2011.
Preliminary data show industrial production edged up 0.3 percent in March from the previous month on growing export demand.
The government also said household spending during the month jumped a real 4.4 percent from a year earlier. Economists credit the solid figure to tax breaks and other government incentives to spur shopping. But they warn that consumption may wane once the programs end later this year.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy_5
The report credited robust growth in overseas markets, particularly in Asia, for fueling Japanese exports and production. Stock prices and corporate profits are up. That should boost capital expenditures and eventually lead to more jobs, higher wages and stronger domestic demand.
"Given these developments, the momentum for a self-sustaining recovery in private consumption is likely to build gradually," the BOJ said.
Government data Friday showed that the country's recovery, though advancing, remains uneven. Unemployment worsened, and prices continued to fall in March. At the same time, household spending rose and factory output expanded.
Japan's seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 5 percent in the first increase in five months. The figure is up from 4.9 percent in February. The number of jobless totaled 3.5 million during the month, up 4.5 percent from a year earlier. Those with jobs fell 0.6 percent to 62.1 million.
Goldman Sachs economist Chiwoong Lee describes the labor market as having "no spark."
"Viewed over several months, the path is flat," he said in a note to clients. "Deterioration has eased but not given way to improvement."
That has dragged prices lower as stores scramble to attract increasingly finicky consumers.
Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes prices of fresh food, declined 1.2 percent in March from a year earlier. The result marked the 13th straight month of decline. Prices fell for a swath of goods from fuel to furniture.
Core CPI for the Tokyo area, seen as a barometer of future price trends nationwide, retreated 1.9 percent in April. In its report, the central bank said CPI may turn positive next fiscal year starting April 2011.
Preliminary data show industrial production edged up 0.3 percent in March from the previous month on growing export demand.
The government also said household spending during the month jumped a real 4.4 percent from a year earlier. Economists credit the solid figure to tax breaks and other government incentives to spur shopping. But they warn that consumption may wane once the programs end later this year.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy_5
2009 - Jobless Rate worst since 2002
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent in fiscal 2009, deteriorating for the second straight year and topping the 5 percent mark for the first time in six years as the global economic downturn put pressure on payrolls, government data showed Friday
The rate, which rose 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, was the second worst on record after 5.4 percent in fiscal 2002, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a preliminary report.
During the 12 months, a separate report by the labor ministry said, the ratio of job offers to job seekers was at a seasonally adjusted 0.45, down from 0.77 in fiscal 2008 to the lowest ever level. The ratio means there were 45 jobs available for every 100 job seekers.
The readings reflected a tough employment condition as companies reduced their payrolls amid the lingering effect of the global financial turmoil in 2008 and subsequent economic downturn.
But there are mixed views, given the recovery of the Japanese economy.
"After the unemployment rate peaked in July (at 5.6 percent), Japan has recovered at a relatively fast rate among developed countries," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. "That is largely due to improving global economic conditions and subsequent recoveries in Japanese exports. I think we don't need to worry about a double-dip recession."
In March alone, the jobless rate deteriorated to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent in February due largely to sluggish conditions for manufacturers. The result, which marked the first deterioration in four months, was worse than the average market forecast of 4.9 percent in a Kyodo News survey.
The number of jobless people was 3.5 million, up 150,000 from a year earlier for the 17th consecutive month of increase, said the internal affairs ministry.
A total of 1.11 million people lost their jobs involuntarily, or due to their employers' decisions, up 50,000 on year.
The number of jobholders fell 350,000 to 62.1 million for the 26th consecutive month of decline.
The ratio of job offers to job seekers was at 0.49 in March, up from 0.47 for the third straight month of improvement and recovering to levels unseen since March last year, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FD509O1&show_article=1
The rate, which rose 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, was the second worst on record after 5.4 percent in fiscal 2002, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a preliminary report.
During the 12 months, a separate report by the labor ministry said, the ratio of job offers to job seekers was at a seasonally adjusted 0.45, down from 0.77 in fiscal 2008 to the lowest ever level. The ratio means there were 45 jobs available for every 100 job seekers.
The readings reflected a tough employment condition as companies reduced their payrolls amid the lingering effect of the global financial turmoil in 2008 and subsequent economic downturn.
But there are mixed views, given the recovery of the Japanese economy.
"After the unemployment rate peaked in July (at 5.6 percent), Japan has recovered at a relatively fast rate among developed countries," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. "That is largely due to improving global economic conditions and subsequent recoveries in Japanese exports. I think we don't need to worry about a double-dip recession."
In March alone, the jobless rate deteriorated to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent in February due largely to sluggish conditions for manufacturers. The result, which marked the first deterioration in four months, was worse than the average market forecast of 4.9 percent in a Kyodo News survey.
The number of jobless people was 3.5 million, up 150,000 from a year earlier for the 17th consecutive month of increase, said the internal affairs ministry.
A total of 1.11 million people lost their jobs involuntarily, or due to their employers' decisions, up 50,000 on year.
The number of jobholders fell 350,000 to 62.1 million for the 26th consecutive month of decline.
The ratio of job offers to job seekers was at 0.49 in March, up from 0.47 for the third straight month of improvement and recovering to levels unseen since March last year, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FD509O1&show_article=1
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