Japan's industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent in April from the previous month for the second straight month of growth, partly due to brisk exports of equipment used for flat-panel televisions, the government said Monday.
The headline reading was worse than the average market forecast of a 2.5 percent rise in a Kyodo News survey.
The index of output at factories and mines stood at 96.0 against the base of 100 for 2005, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report.
The index of industrial shipments gained 1.6 percent to 98.2 and that of industrial inventories was up 0.3 percent to 94.3.
On production, the ministry left its basic assessment unchanged, saying "Industrial production continues to show an upward movement."
By sector, output by general machinery makers climbed 12.0 percent, while transport equipment makers, including automakers, grew 0.3 percent.
Looking ahead, the ministry is projecting industrial production will rise 0.4 percent in May and grow 0.3 percent in June.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9G1GQ8G0&show_article=1
Monday, May 31, 2010
Oct 08 - June 2010 - 277,000 nonregular workers to lose jobs - Aichi worst hit
A total of 277,674 nonregular workers at 5,252 business offices lost or are expected to lose their jobs in the period from October 2008 to June this year, a labor ministry survey showed Friday.
The figure, including workers whose labor contracts with manpower agencies were not renewed after expiration, grew by 2,660 from the previous survey in April, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
"Employment conditions for nonregular workers have stabilized" compared with past periods when companies terminated contracts for dispatch workers, a ministry official said, however.
By prefecture, Aichi, the home of Japan's auto industry where Toyota Motor Corp. and affiliated component suppliers are based, remained top of the list with 45,355 nonregular workers who lost or are expected to lose their jobs, followed by Tokyo with 16,581 and Shizuoka with 11,342.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FVHM2G0&show_article=1
The figure, including workers whose labor contracts with manpower agencies were not renewed after expiration, grew by 2,660 from the previous survey in April, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
"Employment conditions for nonregular workers have stabilized" compared with past periods when companies terminated contracts for dispatch workers, a ministry official said, however.
By prefecture, Aichi, the home of Japan's auto industry where Toyota Motor Corp. and affiliated component suppliers are based, remained top of the list with 45,355 nonregular workers who lost or are expected to lose their jobs, followed by Tokyo with 16,581 and Shizuoka with 11,342.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FVHM2G0&show_article=1
April - Japan's exports jump 40 percent
Japan's exports jumped 40 percent in April, rising for a fifth straight month, fueled by brisk overseas demand for cars and high-tech goods in a fresh sign that the global economy is recovering.
Led by shipments of cars and semiconductors, exports rose to 5.9 trillion yen ($65 billion), the Ministry of Finance said Thursday. Automobile exports more than doubled from a year earlier, while semiconductor shipments rose 35.5 percent.
Robust global demand, particularly in Asia, is feeding a turnaround in Japan's economy — the world's second-largest — offsetting weak demand and falling prices at home. Japan's exports to Asia alone account for 56 percent of total shipments.
A recovery in global auto sales, which plummeted during the global economic crisis in the wake of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, is vital to Japan's economic recovery.
Recent economic signals from Japan have been fairly upbeat. Gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent in the first quarter, the fourth straight quarter of expansion on the back of soaring exports to China.
Thursday's trade figures showed that U.S.-bound exports rose 34.5 percent, while exports to Asia surged 45.3 percent in April. Exports to China alone jumped 41.4 percent, while shipments to the European Union grew 19.8 percent.
Europe-bound exports rose for a fifth consecutive month, but Hideki Matsumura, senior economist at the Japan Research Institute, warned a slump in demand from the region is around the corner because of the debt crisis in European countries that use the euro.
"The crisis could dent demand for Japanese products. But its impact will be limited because Japanese exports to Europe are much smaller than those to the United States and Asia," Matsumura said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy_3
Led by shipments of cars and semiconductors, exports rose to 5.9 trillion yen ($65 billion), the Ministry of Finance said Thursday. Automobile exports more than doubled from a year earlier, while semiconductor shipments rose 35.5 percent.
Robust global demand, particularly in Asia, is feeding a turnaround in Japan's economy — the world's second-largest — offsetting weak demand and falling prices at home. Japan's exports to Asia alone account for 56 percent of total shipments.
A recovery in global auto sales, which plummeted during the global economic crisis in the wake of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, is vital to Japan's economic recovery.
Recent economic signals from Japan have been fairly upbeat. Gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 4.9 percent in the first quarter, the fourth straight quarter of expansion on the back of soaring exports to China.
Thursday's trade figures showed that U.S.-bound exports rose 34.5 percent, while exports to Asia surged 45.3 percent in April. Exports to China alone jumped 41.4 percent, while shipments to the European Union grew 19.8 percent.
Europe-bound exports rose for a fifth consecutive month, but Hideki Matsumura, senior economist at the Japan Research Institute, warned a slump in demand from the region is around the corner because of the debt crisis in European countries that use the euro.
"The crisis could dent demand for Japanese products. But its impact will be limited because Japanese exports to Europe are much smaller than those to the United States and Asia," Matsumura said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy_3
2009 - Wages fell a record 3.3%
Monthly wages took their largest drop ever — 3.3 percent — in fiscal 2009 ended in March as the global financial crisis and recession took their toll, the labor ministry said Monday.
Wages came to ¥315,311 on average, down for a third consecutive year and the sharpest year-on-year drop since fiscal 1991, when the survey's current statistical methods were adopted.
The drop emerged in the form of declining semiannual bonuses and overtime pay as companies struggled to cope with the weak economy, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
Bonuses and other nonbasic pay tumbled 10.8 percent to ¥53,046 per month, while nonscheduled remuneration, including overtime, slumped 7.9 percent to ¥16,987. Basic salaries fell 1.1 percent to ¥245,278.
Overtime hours came to an average of 9.4 hours per month in the reporting year, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100518a3.html
Wages came to ¥315,311 on average, down for a third consecutive year and the sharpest year-on-year drop since fiscal 1991, when the survey's current statistical methods were adopted.
The drop emerged in the form of declining semiannual bonuses and overtime pay as companies struggled to cope with the weak economy, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said.
Bonuses and other nonbasic pay tumbled 10.8 percent to ¥53,046 per month, while nonscheduled remuneration, including overtime, slumped 7.9 percent to ¥16,987. Basic salaries fell 1.1 percent to ¥245,278.
Overtime hours came to an average of 9.4 hours per month in the reporting year, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100518a3.html
2012 D-Day for Japanese National Debt Crisis?
Japan may lose its ability to domestically finance its debt “in a few years” because of a surge of retirees in 2012, according to an analyst at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
“The key year for public finances will be 2012, as the baby boomers retire and begin collecting their pensions en masse,” Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, said yesterday in an interview in Tokyo. “That may be when Japan’s sovereign risk becomes evident.”
Japan, the largest borrower among developed nations, has yet to face a Greece-like fiscal crisis because it has been able to finance most of its spending at home, Nagahama said. The first of Japan’s baby boomers will turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments.
About 8 million, or 6 percent of the population, were born between 1947 and 1949, regarded as the baby boomer generation in Japan, government data show. Almost 23 percent of the nation’s 126 million people will be older than 65 this year, the highest proportion in the world, according to Bloomberg data.
More retirees will lead to a “rapid” surge in the natural growth of the government’s social security burden, which tracks the yearly increase of costs as a result of the aging population, Nagahama said. Costs will rise 2.5 trillion yen annually by 2013, he forecasts, more than double the 1.09 trillion yen growth the government is projecting for this fiscal year.
Retirees will also begin to draw on their savings, according to Nagahama. “If the value of household assets drops, or if it doesn’t fall but doesn’t rise either even as public debt continues to grow, the Japanese won’t be able to finance” government spending on their own, he said.
More than 90 percent of Japan’s government bonds are held by domestic investors. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s Cabinet is scheduled to unveil in June a plan to reduce a debt burden that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates is at twice the size of the economy.
Public debt totaled a record 882.9 trillion yen ($9.5 trillion) as of March 31, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said this week. Households’ financial assets stood at 1,456 trillion yen as of Dec. 31, Bank of Japan figures show.
Japan may need to depend more on foreign buyers of its bonds in the long term, a Finance Ministry official said today.
“Given Japan’s demographics, the current account surplus may decrease and some even say it will go into deficit, although it’s hard to predict when that would happen,” Masaaki Kaizuka, director of debt management at the ministry, said at a conference in Tokyo. “We may see the need to increase reliance from abroad whether we want to or not.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aFLZv1XQPInU&pid=20601087
“The key year for public finances will be 2012, as the baby boomers retire and begin collecting their pensions en masse,” Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, said yesterday in an interview in Tokyo. “That may be when Japan’s sovereign risk becomes evident.”
Japan, the largest borrower among developed nations, has yet to face a Greece-like fiscal crisis because it has been able to finance most of its spending at home, Nagahama said. The first of Japan’s baby boomers will turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments.
About 8 million, or 6 percent of the population, were born between 1947 and 1949, regarded as the baby boomer generation in Japan, government data show. Almost 23 percent of the nation’s 126 million people will be older than 65 this year, the highest proportion in the world, according to Bloomberg data.
More retirees will lead to a “rapid” surge in the natural growth of the government’s social security burden, which tracks the yearly increase of costs as a result of the aging population, Nagahama said. Costs will rise 2.5 trillion yen annually by 2013, he forecasts, more than double the 1.09 trillion yen growth the government is projecting for this fiscal year.
Retirees will also begin to draw on their savings, according to Nagahama. “If the value of household assets drops, or if it doesn’t fall but doesn’t rise either even as public debt continues to grow, the Japanese won’t be able to finance” government spending on their own, he said.
More than 90 percent of Japan’s government bonds are held by domestic investors. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s Cabinet is scheduled to unveil in June a plan to reduce a debt burden that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates is at twice the size of the economy.
Public debt totaled a record 882.9 trillion yen ($9.5 trillion) as of March 31, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said this week. Households’ financial assets stood at 1,456 trillion yen as of Dec. 31, Bank of Japan figures show.
Japan may need to depend more on foreign buyers of its bonds in the long term, a Finance Ministry official said today.
“Given Japan’s demographics, the current account surplus may decrease and some even say it will go into deficit, although it’s hard to predict when that would happen,” Masaaki Kaizuka, director of debt management at the ministry, said at a conference in Tokyo. “We may see the need to increase reliance from abroad whether we want to or not.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aFLZv1XQPInU&pid=20601087
Japanese Demographics
Japan's population is forecast to dwindle to less than 90 million by 2055 and the percentage of elderly (people at least 65 years old) will rise to 40.5 percent, according to median forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
The proportion of those in the productive age bracket of 15 to 64 will fall to 51.1 percent of the total population, nearly equal to those in the nonproductive age brackets — namely, children up to 14 and the "elderly" (those 65 or older).
As recently as 2005, the elderly accounted for 20.2 percent of the total population while those of productive age, 66.1 percent. This means that one elderly person was supported by two of productive age. In 2055, however, everybody of productive age may have to support one elderly person.
Furthermore, recent statistics show that the proportion of those in the productive age bracket who are willing to work has fallen to slightly more than 60 percent — around 70 percent for men and slightly less than 50 percent for women. All these changes are bound to present a number of serious problems.
First of all, spending for medical services and nursing care will skyrocket as a percentage of household expenditure... It will reduce household disposable income because money paid for medical and nursing care services constitutes "necessary expenses" just like income tax and other burdens.
As a result, the average household will spend less on goods and services and more on items related to medical and nursing care services, presenting an utterly gloomy future for nearly all industry segments — except hospitals, homes for the elderly and pharmaceutical manufacturers.
The second problem is that many people are forced to stop working at the "retirement" age of 60 by most corporations, even when they are willing to keep working. It has been demonstrated that people in their 60s are often in the prime of their career, making it all the more desirable to raise the corporate retirement age.
Demographic statistics released by the welfare ministry show that, in 2007, average life expectancy for 75-year-olds was 11.3 years for men and 15.2 years for women. This means that for the average worker, all the money earned during 40 years of hard work will have to be spent for accommodations in a home for the elderly during the final 10-plus years of his or her life.
In the not-too-distant future, stem cell and other advanced medical technologies are likely to extend life expectancy at least five years, which will only increase the amount of upfront money needed to get into a home for the elderly.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100510ts.html
The proportion of those in the productive age bracket of 15 to 64 will fall to 51.1 percent of the total population, nearly equal to those in the nonproductive age brackets — namely, children up to 14 and the "elderly" (those 65 or older).
As recently as 2005, the elderly accounted for 20.2 percent of the total population while those of productive age, 66.1 percent. This means that one elderly person was supported by two of productive age. In 2055, however, everybody of productive age may have to support one elderly person.
Furthermore, recent statistics show that the proportion of those in the productive age bracket who are willing to work has fallen to slightly more than 60 percent — around 70 percent for men and slightly less than 50 percent for women. All these changes are bound to present a number of serious problems.
First of all, spending for medical services and nursing care will skyrocket as a percentage of household expenditure... It will reduce household disposable income because money paid for medical and nursing care services constitutes "necessary expenses" just like income tax and other burdens.
As a result, the average household will spend less on goods and services and more on items related to medical and nursing care services, presenting an utterly gloomy future for nearly all industry segments — except hospitals, homes for the elderly and pharmaceutical manufacturers.
The second problem is that many people are forced to stop working at the "retirement" age of 60 by most corporations, even when they are willing to keep working. It has been demonstrated that people in their 60s are often in the prime of their career, making it all the more desirable to raise the corporate retirement age.
Demographic statistics released by the welfare ministry show that, in 2007, average life expectancy for 75-year-olds was 11.3 years for men and 15.2 years for women. This means that for the average worker, all the money earned during 40 years of hard work will have to be spent for accommodations in a home for the elderly during the final 10-plus years of his or her life.
In the not-too-distant future, stem cell and other advanced medical technologies are likely to extend life expectancy at least five years, which will only increase the amount of upfront money needed to get into a home for the elderly.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20100510ts.html
CMBS restructurings add $12bn to US distressed real estate pile
PERE reports that
In Japan, while the numbers are not as huge; there are substantial amounts of CMBS coming to maturity and there is still a major question mark in the market as to how this will be resolved in the next 2-3 years
http://www.perenews.com/article.aspx?article=53319
the rising number of CMBS restructurings helped push up the amount of distressed real estate in the US by almost 41 percent in April, taking the total value of troubled property in the country to more than $184.6 billion.
According to data provider Real Capital Analytics, a recently revised approach to CMBS loan modifications has contributed to $12.8 billion worth of new real estate distress being reported last month. In September, the US Internal Revenue Service said CMBS special servicers could pre-empt defaults by allowing loan modifications “prior to an imminent default”, rather than only afterwards. Approximately 60 percent of the new troubled real estate recorded by RCA is tied to CMBS-backed assets, up from just 5 percent in March.
RCA classes distressed real estate as having fallen into default, foreclosure or bankruptcy. Including real estate where troubled loans have been restructured and resolved, the amount of distress climbs to $239 billion.
The climb in the level of real estate distress in April came primarily from the office and hotel sectors
In Japan, while the numbers are not as huge; there are substantial amounts of CMBS coming to maturity and there is still a major question mark in the market as to how this will be resolved in the next 2-3 years
http://www.perenews.com/article.aspx?article=53319
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